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Seven Reasons On Why/How Russian Analysis Goes Wrong

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Jan 5th 2016, 05:30

Photo from kremlin.ru

Michael Kofman, War On The Rocks: The Seven Deadly Sins Of Russia Analysis

As the clock counts down to the end of another tumultuous and difficult year of dealing with Russia, the natural instinct is to look back on the battles and surprises of 2015 with an eye to making predictions for the coming year. There is material aplenty: the battle of Debaltseve, Moscow's operations in Syria, a crisis with Turkey that still burns bright. A new year offers new opportunities for prognostication: Where will Russia strike next? What is Putin thinking? What are the likely flashpoints of 2016? Instead of this traditional exercise, Russia experts should reflect on a year of discussions, briefings, round tables, merciless PowerPoint decks about hybrid war, and occasional spats in the virtual pages of outlets like War on the Rocks. What are the nagging questions, questionable assumptions, and unknowns that beset the analytical and policymaking community?

Experts and policymakers who deal with Russia are living in a high-tempo environment, keeping pace with military interventions, crises, and the frequent twists in bilateral relations. However, in any such endeavor, it is possible to learn lessons that are not true. This is my own attempt at presenting a list of questionable bits of analysis and assumptions that exist within the community. In doing so, I hope to push people to critically examine how they look at Russia. Why do we say some of these things, and more importantly why do we think them?

WNU Editor: As one who is always reading Western analysis on Russia .... this post was a joy to read ... because it is so true.

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Revenge is a Poison meant for others, which we end up swallowing ourselves. Vengence is a Dark Light that blinds all who seek it. Don’t argue with Idiots.. They will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Source : http://www.coolnsmart.com/wise_quotes/

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The 14 year old girl Tyga was allegedly texting breaks down in tears(Photos)

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:46

The 14-year-old girl who was claimed to have sent texts to Tyga, supposedly leading to his brief split from Kylie Jenner, has spoken out and revealed her identity .
The ninth grade youngster, who identified herself simply as Molly at a press conference on Monday, appeared alongside celebrity attorney Gloria Allred and fought to contain her tears as she read out a statement on camera.
She insisted though Tyga was texting her, they never even met - and she never gave permission for her texts to be printed.
Her attorney Allred said during the live stream - published by TMZ

:"She feels that she needs to speak out and so does her mom, people need to be accountable."

Allred claims the teen was wrongfully portrayed as a youngster keen to have a relationship with Tyga, and didn't rule out legal action.

Molly went on to insist she didn't pass on the messages she sent to Tyga to the magazine, and added: "Even though OK magazine pixelated my face and did not use my name, a lot of people could tell it was me.""As a result of the story and the photo, I received a lot of negative attention, not only from people in my own state but from all over the place. I don't deserve the negative attention I have been getting as a result of this photo.
"I would never have allowed OK Magazine or any other magazine to use them.
"I am speaking out today because I don't want what happened to me to happen to any other young girl."

Molly's mother also spoke to defend her daughter.

"Molly decided the best thing to do was to stand up for herself," she said. "I'm very proud of her to have the courage to come today and do this. I love you Molly, and I'm proud to be your mom."

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Steve Harvey reacts to allegations Miss Universe winner blunder was intentional

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Jan 5th 2016, 05:02

Steve Harvey has once again,taken responsibility for the Miss Universe blunder, denying reports it was intentional .On his radio show, Harvey denied purposely mixing up the Miss Universe winner

"Why the hell what I do that?, I'm already famous. Do you really think I wanted to be famous like this?""Did I make a mistake? Yes I did. But I'm not in the finger pointing business and rolling other people under the bus.

On how the mistake happened

When the mistake was made, when I said the wrong woman's name, I could only give the information that I had, and that information is not on the teleprompter because you've got two women standing there," Harvey said. "I read what was on the teleprompter, then I read what was on the card the difference being on the card it said first runner up.

On the confusion after the blunder,he said

I've got a guy in my ear going, 'We've got to do something. We've got to do something.' That's what it was, utter confusion, everybody backstage. So I took it upon myself and I walked out there to do something.
"Now, all them people, they know how it really go… Ain't nobody walked out there with me."All I heard was confusion backstage,

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Sophia don't let your uncle ruin you | Davido reacts again, says Dele Momodu plans to set him up

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Jan 5th 2016, 05:07

This is one controversy that keeps getting messier by the day.

Dele Momudu, on Monday night, reacted to the alleged medical report of niece, Sophia Momudu being released to the media by Davido which showed she tested positive for cannabis and marijuana.
Coincidentally or ~~maybe planned~~ Davido, went on Snapchat and claimed that Dele Momudu told someone he was going to set him up.

He however, laughed off the threat whilst advising Sophia to stay away from her Uncle or else…
Check out snapshots below from his snapchat account.

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Russia's Top Military Intelligence Chief Has Died Unexpectedly. No Cause Given

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Jan 5th 2016, 05:00

Igor Sergun's position as GRU chief landed him on the sanctions lists imposed in early 2014 by both the United States and the European Union, which specifically cited his oversight of "the activity of GRU officers in eastern Ukraine." TASS

BBC: Russian GRU military spy chief Igor Sergun dies

The head of Russia's secretive GRU military intelligence service, Gen Igor Sergun, has died suddenly aged 58.

Expressing condolences, President Vladimir Putin called him "an experienced and competent commander, a man of great courage, a true patriot".

The circumstances of his death are not clear. He became GRU chief in 2011.

In 2014 he was placed on EU and US sanctions lists targeting top Russian officials after Russia's annexation of Crimea, in southern Ukraine.

The EU list said Gen Sergun was "responsible for the activity of GRU officers in eastern Ukraine".

Gen Sergun is not thought to have had direct combat experience when he took charge of the GRU.

WNU Editor: Moscow is very quiet on this passing-away. Just Putin's condolences .... nothing more. My take is that everyone was surprised by his demise .... and this week is also Russian Orthodox Christmas .... everyone is focused on the long weekend.

More News On Russia's Top Military Intelligence Chief Dying Unexpectedly

Russia's top military spook dies unexpectedly -- CBS/AP
Russian Military Intelligence Chief Dies Unexpectedly -- RFE
Head of Russia's military intelligence service dies aged 58 -- Independent.ie/Press Association
Russia's Director of Military Intelligence Dies Unexpectedly -- WSJ
Vladimir Putin's spy chief dies suddenly aged 58, Kremlin reveals -- Mirror
Russia's Top Spook Just Died, And Moscow Has Little To Say -- Daily Caller
The Unexpected Death of Russia's military intelligence (GRU) chief, Igor Sergun -- In Moscow's Shadows
Putin Expresses Condolences Over Death of Russia's Chief Military Spy -- Sputnik

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Headies Awards 2015: How Dangote settled the Don Jazzy and Olamide's big fall out

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:59

On the first of January, Olamide and Don Jazzy had a big fallout at the Headies 2015 while on Live International TV, and the fight spilled over to Twitter and made a bloody mess. Surprisingly, they made up their fight in less than 48 hours later.

Well new reports say Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote was the brain behind the reconciliation.

He settled the fight between them in his home on the Island and not mainland, lol.

And yea, he made Olamide prostrate before Don Jazzy.

Lailas blog reports it thus:

Don Jazzy has been angry since the incident happened, infact he wasn't even talking to people.
He was angry especially because Olamide did something similar last year when Reekado Banks got the Headies 2014 Rookie award.

If you recall, the undisputed street King went on stage to receive his award at the 2014 Headies and while giving his speech for the "Best Rap Album of the year ", he clearly stated his displeasure for the omission of his Label mate and protege "Lil Kesh" in the Rookie of the year Category, the category which was won by Mavin's Reekado Banks.

Olamide took the mic said some stuff in Yoruba and then added "I dedicate this award to my nigga "Lil Kesh" for the Rookie of the year , Bleep that sh*t'' and then returned the mic.

Fast forward to 2015, my source says everybody that was sitting next to Jazzy was sad Olamide did what he did. I hope you know Olamide and Tiwa did a song together on her recent album plus Teebillz, Tiwa's husband, I'm told, really loves and respects Olamide. I'm told the video of the song has not been finished sef, Olamide's part has not been done sef.

People were not just happy that Olamide conducted himself in such a manner. That was why Jazzy said all he said on the podium. He had been pushed to the wall.

Anyways... Dangote called Jazzy, got Olamide's number from him and then he called both parties to his house for the settlement.

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Justin Bieber steps out in corn rows

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:55

He shared this photo on his page saying his girlfriend made him do it. He wrote:

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Eva Alordiah’s boyfriend shares more photos from his engagement to her

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:49

Rapper Eva Alordiah got engaged to her man Caesar over the weekend while on stage with Victoria Kimani at the Headies. Caesar has now shared more photos from the engagement on his instagram page.

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Twitter uses narrates how Lagos Babe he met via the social media network, scammed Him

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:47

This story was shared on twitter hours ago, enjoy!

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Man who fled after lover's death surrenders himself,claims robbers killed her(Photo)

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:32

Monday Hounga, the 28-year-old-man, who was believed to have killed his live-in lover, Cecelia Joseph, and fled to Benin Republic, has voluntarily submitted himself to the police.

Hounga claimed that he and Cecelia were attacked by a three-man gang on Christmas Day, adding that the armed men stabbed 21-year-old Joseph to death and ripped open his stomach.

He said after he was rejected by four hospitals in Nigeria, a relative got a cab which took him to Porto Novo, Benin, on the fateful day, where he underwent a life-saving operation.

Hounga said he decided against medical advice to risk his health and submit to the police after he learnt that he had been declared wanted for murder.

According to Punch, 28-year-old had been declared wanted by the Interpol for allegedly killing Cecelia in Raji Rasaki Estate, in the FESTAC Town area of Lagos State.

Our correspondent had reported that the suspect and Cecelia had had a disagreement on Christmas day which culminated in a bloody fight during which the victim was stabbed to death.

The Lagos State Police Command had contacted Interpol to assist with the arrest of the suspect, after he was said to have escaped to Benin Republic.

The police later released a statement saying it had arrested a woman, Taiye Ganiyu, and one Sodjinou Singbo, for aiding his escape.

However, PUNCH Metro was told that Hounga surrendered himself to the police in Benin on January 1, 2016, and was transferred to the FESTAC Police Division the next day.

The matter was immediately transferred to the State Department of Criminal Investigation, Yaba.

The suspect told our correspondent he had never had a fight with Cecelia in the house he rented in Raji Rasaki Estate.

While Hounga is an iron bender, Cecelia worked in a shop in Mile 2 as a hairdresser.

Hounga said,

"We have known each other for more than 10 years now. We met while in the primary school. Although we attended different primary schools, we usually met during inter-house competitions and that was when we started dating.
"I rented the apartment where we lived and we had been living together for more than one year. We would have been married, but her parents said she should get pregnant for me first.

"On December 25, around 12.30am, while we were both asleep, she (Cecelia) suddenly shouted, 'Monday, help me.' As I opened my eyes, I woke up to see a gun pointed at my head. The intruders were three, but only one carried a gun. He said if I shouted, he would blast my head off.
"They stabbed me in the hand and in the wrist when I tried to struggle with them. They later stabbed me in the stomach. I forced myself to pull out the knife from my stomach. When I checked Cecelia, she was dead."

He said the landlord of the house and a few other people later arrived and put him in a tricycle which took him to a nearby hospital where he was rejected.

He said he was also taken to the FESTAC Police Station, where he was issued a police report to enable him get quick treatment.

However, around 4am, after being rejected at a general hospital and two other places, a relative was said to have suggested that he should be taken to the Porto Novo Hospital in Benin.

The doctors at the hospital were said to have operated on him, before placing him on admission.

He said,

"I was on admission when I heard in the news that I killed Cecelia. Here was somebody I loved so much and would many times kneel to beg whenever we had issues. Why would I kill her?"

Hounga explained that Cecelia had once separated from him after she was impregnated by another man, whom she claimed her family supported.

He said after a few years with the man, she returned to him, adding that she had two stillbirths for the former boyfriend.

"She came back in 2014 and because of the love I had for her, I accepted her. Despite what happened, I have not stopped loving her and if I get out of this case, I don't think I will ever love any woman like I loved her," he said.

However, the elder sister of the victim, Titilayo Joseph, denied that Hounga and Cecelia lived together, saying that her sister was staying with her in Mazamaza.

She said,

"Cece (Cecelia) lived with me and not him. She would go to work in the morning and return home at evening.
"I called her on December 24 to know why she was not at home and she said the Yuletide season had kept her busy at work.
"On December 25, she came home to pick something and my neighbours said they saw her. I was sick and couldn't go out.
"I was at home on December 26 when I received a call that she had a fight with her boyfriend and he had stabbed her to death."He claimed they were attacked by robbers; were they the only one living in that compound? Why was she the only one that was stabbed to death? Why didn't he raise the alarm?"

Titilayo said the family was not aware of the relationship, urging the police to bring the killer of her sister to justice.

A source said the police would accommodate all witnesses and sieve the evidence to arrive at the truth.

He said,

"It was a miracle that he survived because all his entrails were out. One of the doctors in the hospitals he was rushed to has made statement to corroborate Hounga's story."

The Deputy Police Public Relations Officer, Lagos State Command, ASP Aliyu Giwa, confirmed the arrest.

He added that the police would get to the roots of the case and give justice to the deceased.

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The Queen of Bhutan shows off her baby bump for the first time

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Jan 5th 2016, 04:40

King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, 35, and his 25-year-old wife Jetsun Pema have released a loving shot of themselves cradling Jetson's belly while lounging in the grounds at the Paro Ugyen Pelri Palace.

The photo, which also appears in the official calendars released by the Bhutanese government, shows Jetsun heavily pregnant, as she is due next month.

'I'm deeply pleased to announce that Jetsun and I look forward to the birth of our son,' the King said in a statement, in mid-November.

He added:

'I consider my son extremely fortunate, because he will be born in our blessed country. We owe our good fortune, our peace, prosperity, and security to His Majesty the Fourth Druk Gyalpo.'

The Himalayan monarch is officially referred to as the Druk Gyalpo, or Dragon King, because Bhutan translates to 'Land of the Dragons'.

The current king and soon-to-be-dad ascended the throne in 2006 at the tender age of 26, after his father, King Jigme Singye Wangchuck, abdicated so that he could take his place.

The progressive former King also introduced democracy to the country. Unlike his son, who plans to have a monogamous marriage, the former King has four wives - all sisters who he married on the same day.

On October 13, 2011, the new King married the Dragon Queen, who at the time was an international relations student at Regent's College in London.

Source: Daily Mail

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